Our Best Theory Was THRIVING — Until this Experiment Changed Everything
Dear Magicians,
For much of the last few decades, cosmologists have lived with the sense that they understood something essential about the universe.
ΛCDM — Lambda Cold Dark Matter — became the standard model not because it was beautiful, or even intuitive, but because it worked. From the universe’s earliest moments to its more recent history, it all held together nicely.
Lambda (Λ) represented the strange and invisible energy accelerating the expansion of the cosmos.
Cold dark matter explained the unseen mass shaping galaxies and clusters.
It was never a complete picture.
But it was good enough to win the Nobel Prize in 2011, when the accelerated expansion was confirmed.
Good enough to garner the 2019 Nobel Prize for demonstrating dark matter anchored the earliest galaxies and clusters in the universe.
Good enough to convince most physicists that we had, at least provisionally, glimpsed something like the truth.
Now that confidence seems to be faltering.
The DESI survey — the most detailed map of the universe’s structure to date — has revealed a tension.
A 4.2σ deviation. This corresponds roughly to a 1 in 60,000 chance of occurring randomly. Not the 5σ deviation, one-in-a-million fluke typically required to garner a Nobel Prize.
Yet.
Not quite a revolution, but far more than a statistical fluke.
The data suggest that dark energy may not be constant. (See here for what that could mean)
That what we once called the cosmological constant might, in fact, be evolving.
If true, this would imply that even our best frameworks are provisional.
That what we have mistaken for fundamental features of the universe may be mere approximations — temporary scaffolding built around deeper laws we have yet to imagine.
Prof Kyle Dawson, the former spokesperson of DESI and I discussed this on INTO THE IMPOSSIBLE this week. We explored why DESI’s measurements are harder to dismiss.
Why the degeneracies that masked earlier hints are finally breaking open.
And why the task before cosmologists now is not simply to refine ΛCDM, but to accept that it may soon be replaced altogether.
The standard model isn’t dead.
But it is wounded.
And if DESI’s findings hold — if dark energy is dynamic rather than static — it may force us to revise our most basic intuitions about what the universe is, and what it’s doing.
As always, the most dangerous assumption in science is the belief that we are nearing the end of discovery.
The data are telling a different story now, about how the universe formed and how it may die.
It’s a story we would all be wise to listen to.
Until next time, have a M.A.G.I.C. Week,
Brian
Appearance
I went on the Young and Alive podcast a few weeks ago. Here’s the conversation and description from the host: Brian Keating is a renowned cosmologist, professor of physics at UC San Diego, and author of the bestselling book Losing the Nobel Prize. He specializes in studying the early universe through cosmic microwave background radiation and was a key figure in the BICEP2 experiment. A passionate science communicator, Keating hosts the popular podcast Into the Impossible, where he explores groundbreaking ideas with Nobel laureates, astronauts, and thought leaders.
Genius
In last week’s Monday M.A.G.I.C. Message, I discussed the need for true expertise in a world where facts often masquerade as fiction — and fiction as facts. To complement that theme, here’s a valuable resource 20 fact checking websites:
This article lists fact-checking sites like Snopes and Google’s Fact Check Explorer, along with reverse image search engines, identity verification platforms, and AI detection tools.
Although originally compiled for journalists, these tools are indispensable for anyone who wants to think critically and verify what they read, watch, or share online.
Image
The installation of the Large Aperture Telescope’s colossal primary and secondary mirrors (each roughly 6 meters in diameter) successfully took place at the Simons Observatory’s site in Chile in February 2025.
Conversation
This week’s chat is with my favorite guest: me!
Can one small inconsistency tear down an entire scientific theory? In this episode, I debunk a claim made by the @astrumspace channel about the “lithium problem” and the real threat to the Big Bang theory. Astrum presents this discrepancy as a major flaw in the Big Bang model, but this is more clickbait than science. The lithium issue isn’t anywhere near as catastrophic as it’s made out to be. The lithium levels might not match exactly what we expected, but that’s one small piece of a much bigger, well-tested puzzle. It’s like finding one odd fossil and claiming it ruins the entire theory of evolution. I also take a closer look at how these claims (mostly used to sell products or generate views) mislead the public and create doubt where there’s no reason for it. We’ve got mountains of evidence backing the Big Bang, and cherry-picking data to suit your narrative just doesn’t hold up. Let’s set the record straight. Keep an open mind, but not so open that your brains fall out!
This video appeared first on my new channel Professor Keating Explains! I’m slowly weaning short form explainers from my main channel to this new one. I need you all to not forget to subscribe and leave a comment and 👍 so the algorithm knows you care 😍.
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Upcoming Episode
Fan favorite, Dr. Eric Weinstein will be on The INTO THE IMPOSSIBLE Podcast this week.Eric is one of the most provocative thinkers of our time, known for challenging conventional wisdom in mathematics, physics, economics, and the culture of science itself. He coined the terms “audience capture”, the “intellectual dark web” and more. He has proposed radical ideas like “Geometric Unity,” aiming to reshape how we think about fundamental physics.
Click here to ask Eric a question.
