Memento Meteorite: What Will You Do With This Moment?
Dear Magicians,
Let’s talk about death. Memento Mori — (Latin: remember you will die)–is the ancient practice of reflection on one’s mortality that traces its origins to Socrates.
This week it was reported Earth is on track for a close encounter with an asteroid. Specifically death from an asteroid impact. It has a higher than 1% chance of hitting Earth in 2032. Not particularly concerning, you might think. After all, you take bigger risks driving to work.
However, the discovery marks only the second time that an asteroid’s impact risk has exceeded a 1% chance.
How we react to this scenario offers a fascinating window into consciousness. Into how we process existential risk. Into the psychology of collective doom versus personal mortality.
Let’s scale it up. What if it were 10%? Notice what happens in your mind right now. Notice the shift in your emotional landscape. Would you still contribute to your 401k? Interesting. Think about that.
Fifty percent. A coin flip for civilization. Here’s where it gets fascinating. Our brains didn’t evolve to process existential risk at this scale. We’re built for immediate threats. Lions. Tribal warfare. Social embarrassment.
Of course, you are vaguely aware of your mortality. You could die tomorrow. A brain aneurysm. A car crash. A falling piano. I sure hope not, but the probability has always been non-zero. Yet you function. You make plans. You worry about your retirement.
But a shared deadline? That’s different. It removes our ability to procrastinate on life’s fundamental questions. No more “someday.” Just now. Or never.
The asteroid isn’t just a thought experiment — it’s a mirror reflecting how we grapple with uncertainty. Humanity’s response to existential threats highlights a paradox: we struggle to reason about low-probability events, even when the stakes are civilization itself.
Risk management experts face the same challenges. Traditional models like expected utility theory fail when probabilities are extreme. Our psychology — wired for survival in ancient environments — betrays us. We aren’t designed to weigh rare but catastrophic events. Instead, cognitive biases fill the gap. We simplify risk into categories like “some” or “none,” ignoring nuance, future outcomes, and long-tail consequences.
Why do we let this happen? Because we downplay long-term risks, just like we do with low-probability disasters.
Experts overcome these limitations by reframing risk. They use contextual comparisons to make abstract probabilities actionable. To soften impacts, they deploy risk-defusing operators — pre-emptive measures like vaccinations or mitigation plans. Most importantly, they embrace dynamic decision-making, ensuring that current choices consider future consequences.
What can you learn from this? Decisions about death — whether personal or planetary — will never be perfect. Waiting for certainty is a fatal flaw. The asteroid is a metaphor for impermanence, the uncertainty embedded in every life decision. Experts act before outcomes are inevitable. So should you.
Why does it take an asteroid to make us examine our choices? Our relationships? Our purpose? The probability of death has always been with us. Always will be.
Think about today.
Really today.
Now.
What would you change if you truly understood the precariousness of existence? Not intellectually. But viscerally.
Here’s what you might consider doing right now:
- Call that person you’ve been meaning to reach out to — Write down what truly matters to you
- Have that difficult but necessary conversation
- Make the decision you’ve been postponing
- Review your bucket list (or finally create one)
- Tell someone what they mean to you
- Take action on something you’ve been saving for “someday”
Don’t wait for better odds.
The asteroid is already here.
It’s called life’s finality.
What will you do with this moment?
Until next time, have a memorable M.A.G.I.C. Week,
Brian
Appearance
I appeared on my friend David Kipping’s Cool Worlds Podcast to talk about life as a Professor podcaster and parent. Enjoy!
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Don’t miss this incredible conversation!
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Since it’s Nobel Prize season, I can’t resist plugging my second book, Think Like a Nobel Prize Winner.
If you’re a STEM professional or aspire to be, I know you’ll love my STEM self-help book, Think Like a Nobel Prize Winner. It’s full of actionable tips from the world’s most brilliant but relatable geniuses. They’ll teach you to overcome the imposter syndrome, collaborate with your competition, and thrive in today’s cutthroat academic environment.
Read the first chapters for free here.
Upcoming Episode
Professor Ben Bratton will be on The INTO THE IMPOSSIBLE Podcast soon. As Director of Antikythera, a cutting-edge think-tank at the Berggruen Institute, he’s pioneering research into how planetary-scale computation is reshaping human civilization and intelligence. His groundbreaking book “The Stack” revolutionized how we understand the layers of global technology infrastructure, from Earth to Cloud to User, showing how computation is not just a tool but a form of planetary-scale governance.
In 2024, he joined Google’s Paradigms of Intelligence group to conduct fundamental research on artificial intelligence and virtual agent societies while continuing to challenge conventional wisdom about technology’s role in society through his work at UCSD. What would you like to ask Professor Bratton about the future of planetary computation, artificial intelligence, or how technology is reshaping human civilization?
