Are you a creep?
Have you ever noticed that when something becomes less common, your idea of what counts as that thing expands? A team of researchers found evidence for this phenomenon, called “prevalence-induced concept change.” It’s sometimes called ‘concept creep’. I call it the ‘bouncer effect,’ and it just happened to my daughter on the way back from Hawaii!
In a series of experiments, Harvard researchers showed participants a series of items and asked them to determine if each item fit into a specific category. For example, in one study, participants had to decide whether dots were blue or not. At first, half of the dots were blue. But then, the researchers secretly decreased the number of blue dots to only 6%.
Interestingly, as truly blue dots became rare, participants started labeling purplish dots as “blue” — dots they previously said were not blue! Their concept of “blue” expanded as blue became less common. The same thing happened in other experiments with more complex ideas, like when participants started categorizing pictures of men’s faces into either neutral or threatening. They started to make neutral faces as threatening when the prevalence of threatening faces was reduced.
The researchers were inspired by their experiences at TSA screenings at airport security checkpoints. As the prevalence of threats has decreased over time, the Harvard researchers wondered if the TSA agents were expanding their concept of what constitutes a threat, leading them to flag more travelers for additional screening, even low-risk individuals like grandmothers and toddlers.
This may explain why my daughter got singled out for extra scrutiny. We all know terrorists love to hide C4 explosives inside Dora the Explorer backpacks like hers! In a low-threat environment, agents’ concept of “threatening” has likely expanded to include even improbable threats, leading to more frequent screening of low-risk passengers.
The research suggests this phenomenon persists even when people are made aware of it and try to resist it. So, while the TSA’s stringent screening of unlikely threats may seem absurd, it could unintentionally result from prevalence-induced concept change as actual threats have become less common over time. Understanding this cognitive quirk may help optimize security processes to reduce unnecessary screenings while maintaining vigilance for genuine dangers.
This “concept creep” occurred even when participants were told it might happen and were paid to resist it. The findings suggest that when we work to decrease a problem, we may naturally expand our definition of the problem. So as the prevalence of something declines, we may continue “finding” it because our concept of it has grown bigger. So next time you’re in a long TSA line, just know the agents might be ‘creeps’!
Until next time, have a M.A.G.I.C. week!
Brian
Appearance
I got name-checked in Terrence Howard’s recent appearance with Eric Weinstein on the Joe Rogan Experience.
So, of course, I had to make a video about it!
Stay tuned for part two where I dive even deeper into everything Terrence and Eric discussed. Question: do you think public intellectuals like Eric should engage with amateurs like Terrence?
Let me know in a reply to this email.
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Have you ever been to ComicCon? It’s coming up soon in San Diego. I love speaking there. Maybe I’ll see you there this year!
Conversation
Modern cosmology is full of controversies, challenges, and unresolved tensions. This can, of course, be very frustrating. But it’s also extremely fun! Especially if we approach these challenges with brilliant minds who aren’t afraid to tackle them head-on. One such luminary is the renowned George Efstathiou.
George is a British astrophysicist and Professor of Astrophysics at the University of Cambridge. He was the first Director of the Kavli Institute for Cosmology at the University of Cambridge from 2008 to 2016. George joins me today for a cosmological episode in which we look at cosmic acceleration, Hubble tension, Sigma-8 tension, inflation theory, BICEP2, Planck collaboration, and more.
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